Recently, I had read an article regarding the Syrian civil war [1]and a conspiracy theory had formulated on the Russian and Syrian connection, or rather the purported Shia and Russian connection on the war against the Sunni led Al Qaeda network. Moe specifically was the conspiracy of the West endeavouring to undermine this connection through the overthrow of the Syrian regime and paving a clear route for a Qatar-European oil route, however, what these theorists had neglected to notice, or at least they have belittled the significance of the nascent rise of the production of shale oil globally and in particular within America which has dramatically influenced the price of oil today. Moreover, whilst the Syrian conspiracy theorists have noticed the red herring with Qatar, the world has noticed however, the impact of tight oil or shale oil which has dramatically affected OPEC nations and in particular it has affected Saudi Arabia directly, subsequently, in 2014-15, the price of oil and petrol at the bowsers have dramatically reduced.
Therefore, it is not the Kremlin leverage on Europe energy reserves which America and NATO were noticing it was the behaviour of the OPEC members in response to Shale oil production particularly from the Americans themselves.
Needless to say, the reduction of the price of oil is a direct confrontational strategy against the expensive to produce tight oil (Shale Oil), from all over the globe, especially within America, in which, although expensive to produce, but, has ameliorated the American energy crisis situation to a point that their surplus supplies are considered for export abroad. The cost effective and easy supply of Middle Eastern and Venezuelan oil for the West has been the only leverage for the OPEC members.
Therefore, in a futile attempt to counter the Shale oil production and in order for OPEC to undermine the nascent rise of the American Shale oil industry, Saudi Arabia has led the way in reducing the price of oil in a two prong attack against Russia-Shia backed Syria and American Shale oil, in a strategy of reducing the price of oil in order to undermine American shale oil production. In the meantime, raising oil prices to counteract the Russian monopoly of European energy supplies is counterproductive for the Saudi and OPEC nations for the obvious reason of American and other nations producing shale oil which invariably includes Australia which has shale oil in abundance enough to easily meet Australian energy needs and enough for Australia to export abroad just like America and even China and Brazil whose shale oil reserves are surprisingly abundant. Saudi Arabia and most Middle Eastern nations have realised this new threat to their livelihoods and it is worse that Christianity and the demise of their Caliphate spheres throughout the world. In short, the war on terror has been won through shale oil and the Middle Eastern world are afraid of this reality. Hence, perpetual war will continue to undermine the Middle East and anarchy and nihilism will further destabilise the region.
In the meantime, the global war on terror has found a very indirect weapon, through the domestic production of fracking of shale oil from American, Australian, Chinese, Mongolian, Brazilian and the myriad of global localities where there are black gold within the rock formation seams beneath the soil much to the chagrin of Saudi Princes and Middle Eastern and South East Asian oil producing nations. The price of oil will remain in the double figures perhaps for very long time in order to suppress the eager production of Shale oil supplies flooding the Western world. Oil autarky seems imminent and for the foreseeable future an oil crisis throughout the Western World seems very unlikely with the nascent era of self sufficient supplies of domestic shale oil.
Australia has realised the benefits of the Shale oil phenomena even in the very short term, with the reduction of petrol at the bowsers by as much as 30%. What seems to be obvious to the laity is the horse trading amongst the global leaders with regards to whom is supporting whom in order to achieve the bigger picture objective in this obvious fog of war within the respective skirmishes throughout the Middle East and how this has undoubtedly impacted upon the lives of daily commuters within American or Australian suburban streets and in particular when heading down to the gas station to fill up the car. The war in the Middle East comes home to the garage as well as within the social media and our television screens.
Tim Tufuga
6th February 2015.
[1] http://friendsofsyria.co/2015/02/06/another-conspiracy-theory-becomes-fact-the-entire-oil-collapse-is-all-about-crushing-russian-control-over-syria/
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